Likelihood of Success in Afghanistan

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Chris Dierkes

Chris Dierkes (aka CJ Smith). 29 years old, happily married, adroit purveyor and voracious student of all kinds of information, theories, methods of inquiry, and forms of practice. Studying to be a priest in the Anglican Church in Canada. Main interests: military theory, diplomacy, foreign affairs, medieval history, religion & politics (esp. Islam and Christianity), and political grand bargains of all shapes and sizes.

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2 Responses

  1. Avatar Jaybird says:

    Once upon a time, I could have told you what success in Afghanistan would look like:

    Osama confirmed killed or captured.

    That was pretty much it. Barring that, the whole “we’re pretty sure he’s dead” thing would have sufficed (had he not released that tape in 2004, for example, I’d have been certain enough that he was dead).

    Barring both of those, I’d be content with the whole “we sure sent a lot of message in a very short time” message given to the Taliban in Kabul… but then we’d have to declare victory and go home.

    As it stands, we didn’t get either of the first two and we have no hope of achieving the third.

    I wouldn’t even know what victory in Afghanistan would even look like at this point.Report

  2. Avatar Chris Dierkes says:

    it’s tough. basically al-qaeda has largely moved next door to Pakistan. Victory for the US (in the peace/stabilization sense is completely unclear to me). Some victory-ish scenario for the Afghans is probably some de facto regionalization and some non-aggression amongst the various warlord types who control feudal like territories. Ain’t pretty that’s for damn sure.Report

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