GOP 2012 Race

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Chris Dierkes

Chris Dierkes (aka CJ Smith). 29 years old, happily married, adroit purveyor and voracious student of all kinds of information, theories, methods of inquiry, and forms of practice. Studying to be a priest in the Anglican Church in Canada. Main interests: military theory, diplomacy, foreign affairs, medieval history, religion & politics (esp. Islam and Christianity), and political grand bargains of all shapes and sizes.

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6 Responses

  1. Avatar E.D. Kain
    Ignored
    says:

    Why can’t we just have Presidential elections every year? 😉Report

  2. Avatar Mark Thompson
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    says:

    I wonder why the poll didn’t include Ron Paul as an option. Not that I think he would come remotely within the ballpark of getting the nomination, but given recent events, particularly the fact that the GOP seems insistent on focusing almost entirely on opposing Obama’s fiscal and monetary policies, I would think that support for him would be at least somewhat higher than it was a year and a half ago.

    I’m far from a Ron Paul fanboy, having had my share of battles with Paul-bots, but whether support for him has increased, decreased, or remained steady over the last year strikes me as an interesting indicator of which way the GOP is headed.Report

  3. Avatar Chris Dierkes
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    says:

    good point mark. it referred to a slew of other candidates receiving smaller-ish numbers (mentions Pawlenty and Barbour, Barbour, who the bleep would vote for that guy?) maybe Paul is in there too? Maybe they are outside the system of registered GOPers?Report

  4. Avatar Lev
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    says:

    Romney doesn’t get the evangelical votes, not now, not ever. Huckabee never gets the country clubbers, not now, not ever. Gingrich is a nostalgia act a half decade away from a coherent thought, and Palin is a flameout who won’t go the distance.

    I’m beginning to think that the nomination is either going to go to a dark horse or to the only other person I could see stepping in after all the options prove themselves nonviable: Jeb Bush. I doubt that Jeb would do it, though. I wonder whether N.J. Gubernatorial candidate (and likely future governor) Chris Christie will become a contender. He’ll be a first-termer (though that’s hardly a dealbreaker, considering the current denizen of the Oval Office), but he’ll be one of the few recent success stories in the GOP. I do wonder if he could get the religious right on board, but winning a deep blue state by being essentially a moderate conservative will stir up some interest.

    The GOP had better have a backup plan, because the second string is just weak. Pawlenty has little charisma and probably wouldn’t win his home state against Obama. Barbour needs to go back to his original job as the guy who portrays Boss Hogg. Eric Cantor is incredibly prickly, Mike Pence isn’t smart enough, and Jim DeMint is way too conservative (though I wouldn’t bet against him as a dark horse nominee). I thought the GOP’s field in 2008 was weak, but 2012 looks even worse.Report

    • Avatar Katherine in reply to Lev
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      says:

      Romney doesn’t get the evangelical votes, not now, not ever.

      Why not? Look at the 2008 results. Where did Romney win? The big liberal states? No – McCain won there. Romney won in most of the caucuses, which are the contests dominated by the activist base, which in the GOP is largely evangelical.

      He lost the South to Huckabee – and probably would to him or to Palin in 2012 – but that’s to be expected due to Huckabee’s home field advantage, and doesn’t prove an evangelical aversion to him.

      Romney is the only one I can see who is likely to win the big liberal and swing states states – Florida, New York, California, Ohio, Pennsylvania – that McCain won last time. That would give him the nomination.

      Even if he doesn’t win Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina, he’ll win Michigan (which will have its full complement of delegates rather than 1/2 as in 2008) and very likely Florida, where he came in a narrow second-place to McCain. He’ll seek to pass himself off as moderate. I don’t see how he loses.Report

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