The Iranian Reformers Have Won: Now Comes the Danger

Chris Dierkes

Chris Dierkes (aka CJ Smith). 29 years old, happily married, adroit purveyor and voracious student of all kinds of information, theories, methods of inquiry, and forms of practice. Studying to be a priest in the Anglican Church in Canada. Main interests: military theory, diplomacy, foreign affairs, medieval history, religion & politics (esp. Islam and Christianity), and political grand bargains of all shapes and sizes.

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10 Responses

  1. Jaybird says:

    I don’t know, necessarily. I would have thought that Tank Man signalled the end of the Chinese government as-we-knew-it.Report

  2. matoko_chan says:

    No Jaybird….the chinese population is fungeable. They could whack 2500 students and wound 20,000 and get away with it.
    They had spares.
    And the chinese didn’t have realtime cyber propaganda…..and they didn’t have a state religion.
    Khameini made it clear that there will be blood….that is very dangerous for him I think. The Assembly of Experts can remove Khameini. If he starts to slaughter Iranian citizens in the streets I think they will. That is going against Islam.
    The army and the police may intervene to stop the militias.
    I stayed up to watch the speech last speech last night……there were absolutely no women in the crowd of bussed in fundies.
    I put the success of the greens at 75%.
    The side without good looking protest babes can never win.
    More seriously, the side without mothers and daughters and wives cannot win in the long run. Women have invisible power.Report

    • Michael Drew in reply to matoko_chan says:

      Forget about their being mothers and gfs — it’s they themselves in the first order who decide it. If the women themselves go one way or the other, that will decide it.Report

  3. Michael Drew says:

    Dude, OODA’s the shiznit!Report

    • Michael Drew in reply to Michael Drew says:

      Chris, would you agree that the Ayatollah’s first-order OODA failure at a grand-strategic regime-survival level was deciding in advance to scuttle the election? He trapped himself in a loop of mis-orientation before the opposition had coalesced beyond standard politics, and in so doing gave rise to it as a corporeal reality?

      He mis-perceived a reformist victory as the real threat to survival, and instead opted for the greater dnager?Report

      • Chris Dierkes in reply to Michael Drew says:

        yeah. khamenei really backed himself far too early into a corner by validating the election. I suppose that gives more credence to the view that he rigged the thing from the get go. I had been leaning towards a view where they saw the elections results coming in, freaked, and then called the thing off. But it seems more now he was hard charging this from the get go.

        I would ascribe that (if it’s right) to 2 things. 1: Khamenei has always been oldschool anti-US. 2: He gave the Reformers a shot to negotiate under Khatami and Bush ignored them, sanctioned them, and put them in the Axis of Evil. Only Ahmadinejad (from Khamenei’s view) has managed to keep the West off its game. So he wants him. That’s my guess anyway, but who knows.

        But yeah once he said the election was divinely mandated, he couldn’t well go back on that could he?Report

  4. Oldpilot says:

    As Hemingway said in another connection: Isn’t it pretty to think so?Report

  5. Katherine says:

    I don’t know if you’re right… I don’t have a lot of confidence the protesters will win out here… but it’s an excellent and thought-provoking post. I’m finding it fascinating that the protesters are using the same methods – coming out to mourn those who were killed by the government, the mourners being attacked and (presumably over the next weeks) repeating the procedure – that were used to bring down the Shah.Report