Anticipating Cuba

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Erik Kain

Erik writes about video games at Forbes and politics at Mother Jones. He's the contributor of The League though he hasn't written much here lately. He can be found occasionally composing 140 character cultural analysis on Twitter.

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4 Responses

  1. Avatar Koz says:

    “In other words, this is a case of meeting each other in the middle. If we maintain a hard line on Cuba, then Raul will be pressured and held politically captive by the hardliners in his government. If we soften up, then Raul will be able to soften up.”

    You know, it may actually turn out this way. But this is not the polisci analog to the Ideal Gas Law. Do you have particular reasons for believing this?Report

  2. Avatar E.D. Kain says:

    It’s happened elsewhere – or rather, it is happening elsewhere – in China for instance and other countries where hostility has been replaced by somewhat normalized relations and trade.Report

  3. Avatar Koz says:

    This sounds like the Ideal Gas Law. I’m sure you know, there’s a substantial debate about the liberalizing effects of trade versus the financial (and moral) support for the despots at the top of the regime. Is this something you just don’t care about very much, think has been definitively settled, or think doesn’t apply to Cuba for some reason?Report

  4. Avatar E.D. Kain says:

    Koz – I oppose economic aid and economic sanctions to many places since what you’re describing often happens under those circumstances; ironically, both sanctions and top-down aid (as opposed to micro-loans) often simply line the coffers of corrupt government leaders and military despots.

    However, I do not think this applies nearly so well when used to describe the effects of normalized political and trade relations; in other words, I think lifting the embargo and thus ending what is essentially a prolonged effort at sanctions, will actually help the Cuban citizens rather than hurt them – even if this also (and perhaps, in a way because of this, too) makes the Cuban elite more well-to-do.Report